Dr. P.M. Kulkarni, Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi, has been actively engaged in research in the areas of Population and Health for over three decades. His contributions cover areas of fertility, family planning, technical demography, sex ratio at birth, and social disparities. He has a brilliant academic record with doctorate in Statistics from Colorado State University, U.S.A and Post Doctoral Fellow at Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, U.S.A. He started his career as a Research Officer at Population Centre, Bangalore and later he has held senior academic positions in Population Studies, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore, Population Research Centre, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore and Population Research Centre, J.S.S. Institute of Economic Research, Dharwad. As a researcher he has published books/monographs and research papers in national and international peer reviewed journals. He has also served the country through his association in various national and international committees. He is a Member of the Council of the Asian Population Association, Bangkok, Thailand and Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP), New Delhi, India. He has been consultant to the United Nation Population Fund (UNFPA) and has served on advisory committees to the Census of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Population Foundation of India. He is also an Editorial Board member in various National and International Journals..

Dr. Kulkarni started the lecture by informing the gathering that the recently released results of India’s 2011 census enumeration are only provisional, that is, based on summaries given by enumerators rather than on complete tabulations of individual data. He also said that now Tamil Nadu is the leader in demographic transition and not Kerala as everyone thinks. Further, the 2011 census is the fifteenth decennial census of India. The census covers the entire country, with March 1, 2011 as the reference date. In addition to enumeration of population, information on age, sex, marital status, religion, caste group, disability, language spoken, literacy and education, work status, and migration is obtained for each individual. Besides, details on housing conditions, amenities, and ownership of assets are also collected for each household.

The detailed results will take some time to be available as the huge mass of data needs to be computerized and tabulated. But provisional results on key factors based on aggregation of summaries prepared by enumerators have been released in April 2011. These allow us to assess trends in population size, growth, sex composition, child population, and literacy. While the figures now available are ‘provisional’ and final numbers may differ slightly from these, past experience indicates that the differences are not likely to be substantial.

Dr. Kulkarni said that India’s population has increased from 238 million in 1901 to 1210 million in 2011, i.e. more than quintupled in 110 years. The pace was slow up to 1921, with some decline during the decade of 1911-21 but picked up after 1921 and accelerated after 1951, with decadal increase rising to 20 percent and the period of 1961-91 experienced growth at a rate exceeding two percent per annum. Some slowing down of the pace was noticed after the 2001 census with the decadal growth still over 20 percent but the annual rate falling marginally below the two percent mark. Now the 2011 census has shown a clear fall, to a decadal growth of 17.6 percent and annual rate of 1.62 percent. In fact, not just the growth rate but the absolute increase has also shown a decline, from 182 million during 1991-2001 to 181 million during 2001-11. Clearly, India’s trajectory of growth has turned downward though the population trajectory continues to be upward. The enumerated 2011 population is close to projected figures; slightly over the RGI projections, but below the U.N. projections. With birth rates now falling faster than death rates, growth rate has begun to decline and India has advanced well into this phase of the demographic transition. India’s population will continue to grow for some time overtaking China in 15-20 years but the growth rate is projected to fall further and population growth slowdown. According to various projections, the size would reach 1.6-1.8 billion in the second half of the century and then begin to decline.

With regard to spatial distribution of population he stated that Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in population size, with the 2011 population just under 200 million (16 percent of India’ population), followed by Maharashtra and Bihar each exceeding 100 million. The UT of Lakshadweep is the smallest, with population below 100 thousand (64,429). There are vast differences in the rate of growth; during 2001-11, it has varied between a mere 0.47 percent in Kerala to 2.24 percent in Bihar among large states. Besides, Nagaland shows a decline, though small, on the other hand, Meghalaya, and the UTs Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, and Puducherry show high growth. A consequence of the inter-state variation in growth rates is that shares of states in India’s population have changed since 1901. Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have lost 2-3 percentage points and Assam, Gujarat, and Maharashtra have gained more than one point.

He also mentioned that there is a fall in the share of child population. The provisional results do not give detailed age distribution of population. However, the size (and hence share) of the population in ages 0-6 is available. The share of the population in ages 0-6 (that is, below seven years) has fallen, from 15.9 percent in 2001 to only 13.1 percent in 2011; such decline occurred between 1991 and 2001 as well. The fall has occurred in almost all the states (Jammu & Kashmir is an exception) but the degree varies. Fall in the share of child population is clearly a consequence of recent fertility decline. Independent evidences from the Sample Registration System and various surveys also show impressive decline in fertility in all parts of the country, though at varying degrees. Fertility transition is clearly in progress in India. A positive consequence of the fertility decline is that the young age dependency has fallen. Thus couples can devote greater resources including time for each child; the classical quality-quantity trade- off.

At the societal level, this means enhanced ability to invest in child development with positive implications in the next generation. In the long run, the share of elderly is bound to rise. But until then, India can harvest the demographic dividend. The window of demographic opportunity has already opened and will remain so for the next few decades; however, given the spatially varied timing of the decline, the dividend would also be staggered.

He further added that the sex ratio in India’s population worsened through the twentieth century, reaching a low of 927 females per 1000 males (or 107.9 M/100F) in 1991. Some improvement was seen in 2001 and the 2011 census shows further rise to 940 (106.4 M/100F). This ratio is still more masculine than the global level but has moved in the direction of balance. Three reasons may be stated: 1. Women are no longer disadvantaged in survival in contrast to the situation some time back, 2. The age structure is changing with share of older ages, where sex ratio favours females, rising, and 3. Selective female under-enumeration has declined. A systematic demographic analysis of age-sex distributions, once these become available, can reveal the relative contributions of these factors. However, the sex ratio for the child population, 0-6 years has become more imbalanced. This is a continuation of a trend seen clearly since 1991: the ratio in this age group has fallen from 962 girls per 1000 boys in 1981 to 945 in 1991, and 927 in 2001, and now 914 in 2011. The worsening of the sex ratio in this age group indicates a growing imbalance in the sex ratio at birth (SRB), for which there is independent evidence from the Sample Registration System (SRS). Though there is some  female disadvantage in child mortality in India, the degree is too small to explain the observed imbalance. The practice of prenatal sex detection via sonographic scans and subsequent sex selective abortion has been known  to be prevalent in many parts of the country in spite of legal steps (PNDT Acts).

Dr. Kulkarni also  pointed out that the regional pattern is quite evident; states in the western and  northern regions have very low sex ratios whereas those in the eastern and southern regions, by and large, seem to have ratios in the range 930-970, close to what is observed in most populations. The 2011 census shows that sex ratio for the 0-6 population has fallen in many states, pointing out to worsening of the imbalance. Notable fall is seen in Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. On the other hand, Punjab has shown a marked rise, from 798 per 1000 in 2001 to 846 in 2011. But even the ‘improved’ level is much lower than normal and among the lowest in the country. Moreover, the practice seems to be spreading to regions not known in the past for poor sex ratios. Besides, within states, there is diffusion from hard core regions to other regions. There is evidence of this in Maharashtra from western to central regions, in Rajasthan from northern region to the central and western, and also in Tamil Nadu. Literacy (measured for population of ages 7 and above) has been rising steadily and the 2011 census shows continuation of the trend, from 65 % in 2001 to 74 % in 2011. Though gender gap persists (82 % for males and 65 % for females), it is narrowing; in the recent period, the improvement in female literacy has been greater than in male literacy.

The level of literacy varies substantially across states. Literacy is now quite high (over 90 percent) in Kerala, Lakshadweep and Mizoram, and high (80-90 percent) in Tripura, Goa, Daman & Diu, Puducherry, Delhi, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Nagaland. The level is relatively low (below 70 percent) in Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh. In 2011, the gender gap is found to be high in Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Bihar. As expected, states with low levels have shown more progress than those with high levels (the latter are approaching universal level and further progress cannot be much).

He said that data on migration would become available only after the all the census data are computerized and tabulation is done. But from the available results, it is possible to draw some tentative inferences on net inter-state migration. It appears that during 2001-11 there was high net in-migration into some small states and UTs; and moderate in Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. On the other hand, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan seem to be out-migrating states. However, inferences on migration, especially the volumes of various  flows, can be drawn only after we get detailed migration tables. The level of urbanization has been low in India, and the tempo had slowed down since 1981. We need to see if the tempo has increased in tune with the rapid growth in the economy. The provisional results do not give ruralurban breakdown of population; this is likely to be available soon. There are indications that some city districts (Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Central Delhi) have not grown but adjoining districts have shown enormous increase. This suggests that the growth is taking place not in core or old city areas but in the peripheral areas.

Coming to Tamil Nadu, he said the population was enumerated at 72.1 million in 2011. This shows a rise of 15.6 % since 2001 and an annual growth rate of 1.46 %. Since 1901, the population has more than trebled, from 19.3 million in 1901, to 30.1 in 1951, 62.4 in 2001 and 72.1 in 2011. Thus, overall, population growth in Tamil Nadu has been much lower than the national level, (the national population which has quintupled over this period). However, the rate of growth in the state during 2001-11 (1.46 %), though low, is actually higher than that during 1991-2001 (1.11%); this contrasts with the national trend. The enumerated population is well above the projected population. On the other hand, the share of 0-6 population has fallen, from 11.6 to 9.6 between 2001 and 2011; this is the lowest level in India and shows that fertility is low and falling. Independent evidence also shows that fertility in Tamil Nadu is quite low and below replacement level. Given the evidence, the natural increase (number of births minus deaths) in the state cannot be high and hence the relatively high intercensal growth in the state points towards heavy migration into the state from outside during 2001 to 2011. A quick estimate of net migration is 0.5 % per annum. In terms of volume, this amounts to about 3-4 million in 10 years. However, at this stage, we do not have hard data on places of origin of the migrants.

He also specified that there are inter-district variations in population growth while some districts in the state have grown much more than others. The high growth districts are Kancheepuram, Thiruvallur (over 35 %) and Tiruppur (just below 30 %). On the other hand, Nilgiris has shown a decline and Chennai very slow growth during the intercensal decade. Once detailed data on migration become available, it would be possible to analyse the growth variations. The high growth in Kancheepuram and Thiruvallur juxtaposed against the low growth in Chennai is of interest and raises some questions. Is this growth due to migration from Chennai to the adjoining districts, or due to migrants not being able to move into Chennai on account of overcrowding, high cost of housing, etc.? If the latter, are these migrants primarily from within the state or from outside the state? How smooth is the migration of those from outside the state?

He further stated that Tamil Nadu has long had a balanced sex ratio. The 2011 census showed a ratio 995 females per 1000 males, a small rise from 987 in 2001. The child sex ratio, 946 girls per 1000 boys, is also fairly balanced. However, within the state, there are pockets of sex imbalance in child ages. In the past, a belt from Krishnagiri to Theni covering Dharmapuri, Salem and Namakkal was known to show deficit of girls. There has been some improvment in the ratios in some districts, especially Dharmapuri and Salem, but worsening in some others, especially Ariyalur and Cuddalore. Again, as at the national level, while there is some move towards balancing in districts with high imbalance in the past, the practice of sex selection seems to be spreading to other areas.

In his concluding remarks he said that the demographic transition is on track in India; the evidence on fertility decline from the 2011 census matches that from the SRS and surveys matches the census results fairly well. There are inter-state variations (as also intra-state variations) in population growth and in trends in fertility and mortality; some regions are ahead of others in these processes but the general trend is clearly towards falling fertility, mortality, and growth. The imbalance in the child sex ratio showing that sex selection persists is a matter of concern. Hardly any census results come as surprise- this includes the growth rate, imbalance in child sex ratio, improvement in literacy; an exception is the inference on heavy migration in Tamil Nadu which was not projected but perhaps there was local awareness of it if not numerical estimates. Overall, one can say that with the multiple sources of data, registration, surveys and census, we now have a clearer idea of India’s demographic situation than ever in the past. This is good news for India’s policymakers and planners.

The reflection by lecture generated several clarification and queries from the participants. There were clarifications on whether youth data is available in the recently published census? Why there is an increase in population growth in Tamil Nadu? If it is due to migration where do migrants come from? When the data on aged would be released? Dr. Kulkarni clarified that at present youth data is not available since these are only provisional results and the data would be available after 2 years. He also said the population growth of Tamil Nadu shows increase of inmigrants and it might be due to development of industries and availability of economic opportunities. Further there were questions on availability of data pertaining to income and caste in the census and also the quality of census data compared to other countries. He responded that the quality of Indian census data is better when compared to other countries and we have also collected caste details in the current census enumeration. To a question on what is the use of census, he replied that it is useful for making projections with regard to various demographic indicators. For a query on sex ratio, he pointed out that sex selection has been practiced widely in parts of India, especially the northern and western regions which leads to reduction in the sex ratio.

Distinguished professionals from the various field such as academic, research, health management, consultancy, policy making, program implementation, media etc. participated in the lecture.

The management and staffs of Voluntary Health Services and AIDS Prevention and Control (APAC) Project record their gratitude and appreciation to Dr. P.M. Kulkarni for his insightful reflection on 2011 Census Results by felicitating him.

Press Coverage

The Hindu, 4th June 2011

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